Suicide Squeeze

One of the most exciting plays in baseball is the ‘suicide squeeze’. It requires timing and skill and when properly executed is very difficult to defend against.   The play starts with a runner on third with less than 2 outs and fewer than 2 strikes on the batter.  As the pitcher begins his throw, the runner breaks for home.  The batter must bunt the ball in fair territory.  If the bunt is far enough, the fielders have no choice but to throw out the batter on his way to first, allowing the runner from third to score easily. 

The two critical components of the play are the timing of the runner and the skill of the batter.  If the runner starts too early, he can be picked off at third.  If he leaves too late, there is a better chance for the defense to throw him out at home plate.  If the batter does not make contact with the ball, the runner is very easily tagged out.  He is under enormous pressure to make sure he puts the ball in play.

To defend against this play, the opposing team must anticipate the possibility and take measures to foil it before it begins.  There are two possible defensive plays that they can try.  The first, assuming the pitcher has a quick move, is to throw the ball over to the third baseman instead of pitching.  This will force the runner to stay close to third and perhaps lessen the possibility that he will run.  The other defense would be the pitch out (throw the ball to the catcher outside of the strike zone putting him in a position to throw out the runner while making it impossible for the batter to hit the ball) guessing right can turn the runner into an easy out.

In the current economy, managers are hesitant to invest in their business.  They face a great deal of uncertainty and just like the baseball manager, trying to defend against the squeeze play they need to develop a strategy to give their team the best chance of success.  This requires decisive action.  The passive manager is doomed to lose this battle.

Business decisions are always a question of risk versus reward.  The amount that we invest in developing and implementing contingency plans is (or certainly should be) based upon our assessment of the risks we are taking by not planning for such a contingency.  The most important thing is to assess the risk.  Once we have carefully considered that risk, we may yet decide that no action is necessary.  However, skipping the assessment of the risk is without a doubt a losing strategy.

Risk assessment is a continuous process.  As conditions change, risks that were minor in nature previously suddenly become much more serious.  Conversely, those that are serious risks today may become less so in the future.

A classic example of this phenomenon occurs when a small manufacturer suddenly wins a contract with a major retailer.  The retailer is likely to specify very precise shipping requirements including specific delivery times, exact labeling requirements, and more.  For the manufacturer, late delivery or labeling mistakes which were hardly a cause for much concern suddenly carry the risk of significant fines and penalties (chargebacks) which can quickly wipe out the contracts profitability.  Management must seek ways to reduce the risks of such errors through close scrutiny of the operations and continuous improvement.

Through understanding of the risks, a good baseball manager can implement a strategy which will keep the run from scoring.  A business manager has the same opportunity.